About LunarStat
LunarStat is an independent sports analytics website focused on understanding games through data. Using statistical models and transparent methodology, the site provides Elo-based game predictions and tools that help users interpret probabilities in professional sports.
What LunarStat Does
LunarStat applies Elo ratings, a rating system widely used in sports analytics, to estimate team strength and generate win probability predictions for upcoming games.
Rather than relying on opinions or narratives, the focus is on data-driven insights that help explain how teams compare before a matchup.
In addition, LunarStat offers a Moneyline to Winning Probability Converter, which translates sportsbook moneyline odds into implied probabilities and shows how bookmaker margins affect pricing. This tool is designed to improve understanding of betting odds from a mathematical perspective.
Tools Available on LunarStat
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Elo-based game win probability predictions
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Moneyline to implied probability conversion
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No-vig probability calculations
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Bookmaker margin visualization
All tools are updated and refined as models improve.
Important Notes
LunarStat is an informational and educational resource only.
We do not provide betting tips or recommendations
We do not accept or facilitate wagers
We do not guarantee outcomes or profits
All predictions and calculations represent statistical estimates, not certainties. Users should interpret results with an understanding of uncertainty and model limitations.
Methodology
Elo ratings on LunarStat are calculated using publicly available game results and standard Elo update principles, including adjustments based on opponent strength and game outcomes.
Winning probabilities are model-based estimates derived from Elo differentials. Like all statistical models, these estimates simplify reality and are subject to error. LunarStat emphasizes transparency and continuous improvement over claims of accuracy.
About This Project
LunarStat is run as an independent analytics project by an individual researcher with a background in data analysis and sports analytics. The site is continuously evolving, with plans to expand tools, improve models, and add educational content related to sports data and analytics.
Advertising & Monetization
To support hosting and development costs, LunarStat may display advertisements through Google AdSense. Ads are provided and managed by Google and do not influence model outputs, predictions, or site content.
Get in Touch
Questions, feedback, or suggestions are always welcome.
If you’re interested in sports analytics or data-driven approaches to understanding games, LunarStat is built for you.