lunarstat – Elo ratings and winning probabilities

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Moneyline Win Probability Converter
No-vig win probability + bookmaker margin

“No-vig” probabilities are normalized to sum to 100%.

Why does implied probability matter?

1. Bookmaker’s margin (fee) is included in the moneyline, resulting in biased winning probabilities for both teams.
2. Moneyline itself is confusing. It is hard to understand the expected earnings, especially for negative numbers, and to estimate winning probabilities.